Donald Trump Sentencing Could Have Helped His Election Odds: Karl Rove

Former White House deputy chief of staff Karl Rove said that if Donald Trump had been sentenced before November’s election it could have been the “October surprise” and helped his chances in the race.
Appearing Friday on Fox News, Rove was asked about Judge Juan Merchan’s decision to delay Trump’s sentencing until after the election, in connection with his conviction in New York for falsifying business records regarding a hush money payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels.
Rove responded: “Well, first of all, it’s a reasonable decision. I think that even the judge figured out that it would be enormously disruptive to the country and reflect badly on the judiciary if he attempted to insert himself into the middle of the final stages of a presidential campaign.”
Rove continued, “And I also agree with the notion…that if [Merchan] had gone forward with this, it would have, ironically enough, served the interest of Donald Trump.”
Rove also said that Trump has risen in the polls “the more the people have reacted negatively to his treatment in the courtroom. And if the judge had gone ahead with this, it could have easily been the October surprise. That is to say, [Merchan] would have potentially gone after Donald Trump in his verdict and the reaction of the American people might have been wholly negative on it and helped advance the cause of Donald Trump in the election.”
Rove also called the ruling a “wise decision” and “good for the country.”
Newsweek has reached out to Trump’s campaign via email for comment on Rove’s remarks.
Meanwhile, after the decision was announced, Trump took to his social media platform Truth Social to praise the decision, saying in part, “The Manhattan D.A. Witch Hunt has been postponed because everyone realizes that there was NO CASE, I DID NOTHING WRONG!”
Trump also said he appreciated Merchan’s wording in the decision that says the sentencing “if necessary” will be pushed to November 26 at 10 a.m. Trump was previously scheduled to be sentenced on September 18.
Political analyst and Dillard University professor Robert Collins told Newsweek on Friday, “I don’t agree with Karl Rove because up to this point, trials and convictions have not changed poll numbers. Trump supporters have already indicated in polling that even if Trump went to prison, they would still vote for him. So a prison sentence would not have changed the fundamental behavior of the Trump voters.”
As Trump battled his New York criminal case this year, the polls showed a relatively even presidential race before and after his May 30 conviction by a Manhattan jury, according to polling aggregation from polling analysis site FiveThirtyEight.
A Morning Consult and Politico Poll commissioned between May 28 and 29 showed Trump and President Joe Biden in an exact tie with 45 percent of the vote among registered voters, with a 2-point margin of error. Similarly, an Economist and YouGov poll commissioned between May 25 and 28 showed Trump 1 point ahead of Biden among registered voters, with a 2.9 percent margin of error.
After his conviction, an Economist and YouGov poll commissioned between June 2 and 4 among registered voters showed Trump and Biden in an exact tie again, with 42 percent of the vote and a 3 percent margin of error. A Reuters and Ipsos poll commissioned between May 30 and 31 showed Biden 2 points ahead of Trump among registered voters, with 41 percent of the vote compared with Trump’s 39 percent and a 2.1 percent margin of error.
A YouGov and CBS News poll taken between June 5 and 7 showed Trump up 1 percent with 50 percent of the vote, compared with Biden’s 49 percent, among likely voters, with a 3.8 percent margin of error.